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What is Genies Showtime?
While Interior agreed that Scotts Valley met requirements regarding its modern ties to the area and the timing of the acquisition, the department ultimately concluded the tribe failed to demonstrate a sufficiently significant historical connection to the land.
In court Friday, DOJ attorney Amber Dutton-Bynum argued that Scotts Valley could not meet the high threshold for irreparable harm required to secure an injunction. She maintained that the tribe knowingly chose to invest in the Preview Casino while its gaming status remained uncertain, as reported by Law360. Dutton-Bynum added that the modular buildings could easily be repurposed for non-gaming commercial uses if the prohibition stands.
Patrick Bergin, an attorney for Scotts Valley, rejected that argument, noting the difficulty of converting a site explicitly planned and built for gaming into something like an auto dealership.
What is Genies Showtime?
That estimate arrives courtesy of Macquarie and is well ahead of the research firm’s previous estimate of $169 billion in 2026 taker volume.
Takers is a prediction market industry colloquialism for the market participants that swiftly fill buy and sell orders, thus removing liquidity from the marketplace. Conversely, makers are the market participants viewed as liquidity providers and professional or sharp money.
“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”
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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
