Flaming Dice

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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

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It called for any such acts to be reported immediately to the Ministry of Finance and the Directorate General of Administrative, Judicial, State Property and Equity Revenues (DGRAD).

The DGRAD has been tasked with identifying and securing the cancellation of any irregularly issued payment notices.

The Ministry of Finance stated that any approval, authorisation, payment notice or other act issued by a department without authorisation was “devoid of legal effect”, with operators still liable for fulfilling their obligations to the DRC’s Public Treasury.

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However, the judgment in that specific case against Star Casino ruled that Grant was a self-professed advantage player, and that a casino where the staff was competent and the games were operated correctly had nothing to worry about. 

Grant has maintained that advantage play is not “dishonest or cheating” ever since his first legal brush with Star Casino.

However, he may have indeed been able to spot the imperfection in the cards, which is an outcome completely different than what was ruled in the case of Phil Ivey, a popular poker pro who ended up using edge sorting to win millions of dollars, but had to forfeit or repay his winnings in the end.