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What is Water Dice?
Entain sits somewhere between the two models. It has significant international scale and a valuable stake in BetMGM, but also more debt and greater exposure to UK taxation, as well as general regulatory turbulance across Europe.
The four analysts arrive at much the same broad conclusion, albeit by different routes.
For Birkin, the share-price decline has gone well beyond the deterioration in earnings expectations. Fantini sees the industry’s great growth phase as largely behind it. Beynon’s focus is on what the market can see today: earnings and cash flow, rather than promises of future sportsbook growth. And for Robinson, the weakness is no longer simply a matter of valuation. It is increasingly showing up in the fundamentals themselves.
About Water Dice
Well, I may as well go out guns blazing. Locked and loaded. You want to know what I really think about stuff? You probably guessed already, but here it is then, uninhibited this time. I can’t exactly say sit back and relax. Lean forward and focus. This ship is going down. When it finally sinks, my feeling is later this year, you better have a lifeboat.
I’ll start with a story. Once I had a job I didn’t like. I was an affiliate manager at some jewelry company. I’m not a marketer. I’m a thinker, trader, investor, writer. I was there for two years, marketing. After two years I decided I had to move on because I hated marketing. I wanted to go into finance. So I submitted a financial article somewhere and it was accepted. Then on my birthday in 2012, I decided with my wife I was going to quit and focus on finance. That morning, we went out for a birthday breakfast. We share the same birthday. It makes things easier, more convenient. I was going to show up late to work after breakfast and then announce I would be leaving.
After breakfast, before I got in the office, I get a call from my manager. He tells me the company decided to close up shop suddenly so there is no need for me to show up. Well, that’s convenient. I showed up anyway, said goodbye to my friends there, and I went off home, a burden lifted from my shoulders.
How to play Water Dice
Macquarie’s Beynon agrees with that sentiment, pointing to the relative stability of gaming companies through tough economic stretches such as the Covid-19 pandemic. Bankruptcies in the sector have been low relative to the broader market, he notes, and both land-based and digital companies have reason for optimism moving forward.
“It’s certainly not lost on us that this sector has underperformed for several years in a row just because it doesn’t have either the growth of say, tech companies, or the perceived free cash flow-insulated businesses, which we believe it does…We’ve thought there’s been value in the sector for a few years, particularly this year,” he told iGB.
Jess has covered the global gaming industry since 2022. A native of Reno, Nevada, he’d like to note that it’s Ne-va-da, not Ne-VAH-da.
