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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

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As a lifelong football enthusiast, it comes as little surprise that Lebron James’ transformative move to Polymarket on Labor Day Weekend served as a harbinger for an even broader announcement by the upstart predictions market operator.

Last Saturday, on the same day that Ohio State University made its season debut in college football, James teased a new commercial relationship with Polymarket. James, an ardent Buckeyes’ supporter, posted a brief video on social media platform X, where he announced his partnership with the controversial platform. While college football fans watched Ohio State thrash Miami (Ohio) 56-3, industry stakeholders wondered aloud which athletes would join “King James”.

After all, James indicated in the post that more details would be forthcoming. By Tuesday, the stakeholders received their answer when Polymarket aired a splashy ad that received more than 15.5 million views on James’ X page.

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As Paul Crisp, Cubeia’s head of marketing, points out: “If the objective is 10% more traffic, for example, how do we measure it?

“We need to establish a baseline, implement the change, measure it and see whether it goes up by 10%. If it only goes up by 1%, maybe we need another iteration because we haven’t fulfilled the objective.”

The next development is increasingly being driven by Cubeia’s customers. Now the company is asking what customers will want to do with AI, Grenstad explains.