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“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”
If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.
Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
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Also, Stephen Cloobeck, a billionaire and 2026 California gubernatorial candidate, purchased approximately $10,000 in contracts tied to his campaign. He was fined $31,770 and suspended for three years.
Each settlement involved cooperation with Kalshi’s investigation.
What distinguishes Santos’ penalty is the exchange’s allegation that he actively issued false or misleading statements to alter prices and profited materially, violating additional rules such as failure to cooperate and manipulative conduct.
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A total of 10 standards are up for revision, and the draft dates for the proposals range from June to August. The board notified licensees about the compilation of revisions and the meeting date on 4 September. Interested parties may submit comments ahead of the hearing through 5 October.
The extent of the revisions vary, but most are somewhat significant with regard to language that is being added or omitted. Proposed changes to Standard 9 (digital pari-mutuel systems), for instance, include mostly small additions, whereas Standard 3 (slot metering systems) has entire sections added and subtracted. Explanatory notes for the edits are frequent throughout all of the proposals.
While Nevada is considered the top gaming state in the US, its regulatory framework related to technology has been seen as slow-moving and cluttered in comparison to other up-and-coming jurisdictions around the US. Ever since NGCB Chair Mike Dreitzer took over last June, modernisation has been a top priority, and these latest revisions are an extension of that.