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The gap comes as Phnom Penh prepares to host its major anti-scam conference on 23-24 September, part of the wider government campaign against online scam networks.
Initially framed as “Together Towards Disrupting the Chain and Ending Online Scams” by AKP in August, the conference now carries the theme “Acting Together towards Breaking the Chain and Eradication of Online Scams” on its official website.
Prime Minister Hun Manet has publicly characterised the crackdown as an effort to “clean our house” and restore Cambodia’s reputation internationally.
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He points to Macau’s Cotai Strip and Singapore’s Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa as examples of how regulatory discipline can coexist with considerable freedom for developers to innovate. “At its core, Japan’s policies need to be pragmatic and allow for developments to succeed – not constrain them to the point that they risk failure.”
When asked which operator will be willing to take the risk and ultimately win Japan’s next “licence lottery”, Klebanow contends that it depends on how restrictive – or attainable – the regulations and requirements imposed by the government will be.
“If policymakers once again impose onerous policies that limit a property’s profit potential, then most developers will not take the risk of investing upwards of $10 billion in an IR development,” says Klebanow.
How to play Candy Tower
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.