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The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.
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It is an eclectic list, but that’s kind of the point. Relevance can mean a global sporting event in one market and a far more niche (see ice cage fighting) obsession in another. Splash Tech’s job is to find the experience that fits the audience, rather than expecting the audience to fit the product.
If free-to-play builds familiarity, Splash Tech’s jackpot engine is intended to provide a common thread across an operator’s offering, even when the games themselves come from dozens of competing studios.
“A jackpot engine is a rare product in that you can brand that engine and it will sit across all of your content,” Wilson says. “As an operator, you might have 50 different game suppliers. On every single game that you’re serving, you can show a branded jackpot.”
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Furthermore, the text maintains obligations for monitoring and institutional cooperation, with the provision of aggregated and anonymised data to the competent authorities. It also provides for actions by the executive branch aimed at monitoring the impacts of betting, training health professionals, updating care protocols and periodically disseminating information on the effects of the activity.
Application providers, digital platforms, hosting services and media intermediaries must remove irregular advertisements and campaigns after notification from the competent authority. The rapporteur’s version requires that the notification clearly and specifically identifies any content deemed irregular and ensures the right to a fair hearing and full defence. Journalistic, academic, parliamentary, artistic and opinion content are expressly protected.
Operators and companies linked to them are also prohibited from acquiring, licensing, or exploiting rights to sporting events held in the country. In the area of administrative penalties, the rapporteur’s text incorporates the new infractions into the existing sanctions system in Law 14.790 of 2023, which provides for fines of up to BRL2 billion ($392.8 million).
